1 Introduction to Probability
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Outcomes can be predicted precisely from an initial set of conditions.
"If you give me a set of conditions, I can provide you with the outcome."
Eg) finding the 3rd angle of a triangle.
Outcomes cannot be predicted precisely from an initial set of conditions.
Eg) Rolling a dice
Implication to daily life.
Possible outcomes of a random trial/process/experiment
Randomly take a hand of 13 cards from a standard deck of 52 (13 Diamonds, 13 Hearts, 13 Spades, 13 Clubs)
A = "The hand consists of all 13 diamonds"
B = "The hand has at least 1 diamond"
B appears more often than A!
B is more likely to occur!
A quantitative measurement on how likely a random event will occur under repeated trials.
Flip a coin.
Definition of prob. based on the stability of the relative frequency:
"0.2" has no meaning.
Arbitrary measure of confidence.
What is the probability that a terrorist crashed a plane on the twin towers on 9/11?
What is the probability that the moon landing happened?
(A special case of Definition 2; Chapters 2 & 3)
Created by Tim Pei with Microsoft OneNote 2010
One place for all your notes and information